Daniel Ojukwu, takes a look at the political landscape puting the Osun governorship election into perspective and arrives at the conclusion that based on the game INEC, the ruling APC and the security forces played, victory seems very sure for President Muhammadu Buhari come 2019 even if it may not be free and fair
Admin I Thursday, October 04, 2018
LAGOS, Nigeria – The Osun State election has come and gone, albeit not without its fair share of controversies and election skirmishes. It appears the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and its professional dancer candidate – Senator Ademola Adeleke, would have enough time to dance to the same music which saw the party win the senatorial bye-elections organised by a “holier” INEC, but what does victory for Gboyega Oyetola and the APC really mean for Nigerian democracy and what does it indicate about the much anticipated 2019 general (presidential) election?
INEC’S READINESS: One major talking point of the Osun election was the independence (or lack of it) of INEC. The Independent National Electoral Commission has done more defending its image than in the conduct of elections in recent times since we are made to believe that incumbent administrations will always have their way, thereby giving credence to the conspiracy theory on the lips of critics.
Does federal might still hold water in modern politics? Did the famed “power of incumbency” have something to do with the inconclusiveness and later victory of the APC? Is INEC truly Independent? There always seem to be more questions than answers.
SECURITY FORCES AND POLITICS: Aside stones hauled at INEC’s glass house, much was made of viral footages depicting a conspiracy between the armed forces and mischief makers looking to mar the elections by preventing a certain party’s supporters from casting their ballots, thereby engineering an APC victory. If these reports are anything to go by, how ready then are we for free and fair elections?
BOURDILLON’S SOUTHERN INFLUENCE: There is no better way to explain political godfatherism than by the mention of the ‘Lion of Bourdillon’ himself – Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Over the years, the influence of Tinubu seems to have waxed stronger and he seems to established him as a force to reckon with in the political scene of the western region and beyond. If the Lagos state governorship drama hadn’t already reminded us of the power he wields, Osun certainly did.
Just as the battle was ongoing between the two major candidates, social media was awash with PDP party chieftains and sympathisers such as Senate President Bukola Saraki, Chief Fani Kayode and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, pledging to break the political stronghold of Tinubu in the west. It seems like the former Lagos state governor left the ring with a knockout victory.
THE PRESIDENT: Love him or hate him, he sure does know how to play his politics. President Muhammadu Buhari has been able to get to where he is after five attempts, rewrite the history books which painted him as just another military tyrant, and etched his name in stone as one of Nigeria’s most controversial political figures.
Consider this – President Buhari has been able to manage the loss of at least three of his ministers (Solid Minerals, Finance, and Women Affairs) to political office contests and some NYSC saga, with little fuss, while also playing the Good Samaritan by the confirmatory sack of the DSS DG.
But he did score another political point from Osun as he halted investigations and a perceived witch-hunt on Adeleke’s results to allow the innocent dancer dance his way to a perfect orchestra. As though the Greek gift wasn’t enough, the presidency invited heavyweight artiste David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido, a nephew of the defeated Ademola Adeleke, and very vocal campaigner of his uncle, to perform at the victory celebration of the governor-elect – Gboyega Oyetola… talk about a perfect climax.
It may still be early days, but the signs indicate that a clean sweep for the APC may just be in the offing as contrary to speculation, the party does know how to play its cards right and milk out a victory. Should we expect a return certificate for Buhari? Let the hands of time decide.
Daniel Ojokwu is a student at the Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos, Nigeria
