By abiodun KOMOLAFE I Sunday, April 12.2026
IJEBU-JESA, Osun – Nigeria’s 2026 statistical profile is threatening: a 3.8% GDP growth and near-total domestic refining are swallowed by 27% inflation, rendering the ₦70,000 wage a pittance. This “cartography of abandonment” leaves 141 million Nigerians – 62% of our people – trapped in poverty, with 31 million in hunger hotspots.
From biological necessity to political agency, and from empty stomachs to the polling booths; through the shift from cultural hegemony to mere street survival, or the regression of subject to client, “stomach infrastructure” has become the raw, physical evidence of a broken social contract. It is a sign that hunger has finally made a mockery of political ideology. The thrilling trouble with Nigeria – which has led to this widespread decay of our social infrastructure – is that development has failed to start from the base
It is common knowledge that, when the state retreats, the desperate and lawless fill the vacuum. It is the inevitable harvest of a system where the majority are denied the tools to become functioning economic entities.
From biological necessity to political agency, and from empty stomachs to the polling booths; through the shift from cultural hegemony to mere street survival, or the regression of subject to client, “stomach infrastructure” has become the raw, physical evidence of a broken social contract. It is a sign that hunger has finally made a mockery of political ideology. The thrilling trouble with Nigeria – which has led to this widespread decay of our social infrastructure – is that development has failed to start from the base.
This is precisely why we see such horrifying levels of poverty across the nation. It is a socially combustible situation, evidenced every time we turn on the television or open a newspaper. This environment has unleashed a host of “monsters”: criminals, bandits, and kidnappers, alongside the disgruntled, the aggrieved, and the disenfranchised, all scrambling for space. Such an outcome is inevitable within a framework where a frightening majority of the population are, in effect, being marginalized by non-functioning economic entities.
In reality, young people are being bred – not born – to become raw materials for criminal enterprise and cannon fodder for anti-state activities. That leaders of political parties now pay homage to those at the vanguard of these non-state-sanctioned activities is a clear confirmation of our journey into a perfidy that reinforces our current state of underachievement.
Despite the injustices of colonialism, it was once simpler to obtain a conveyance or a clean, tradable land title. This document served as a bridge, allowing individuals to become functioning economic entities. For millions, this process became a ladder to integration and prosperity within a modernizing economy. Today, by contrast, obtaining a Certificate of Occupancy (C of O) has become a difficult and, in many cases, ruinous proposition.
Decades of experience make it debatable whether the Land Use Act – forced down the throats of Nigerians by a military dictatorship serving narrow interests – has not turned out to be a catastrophic mistake. Of course, it has made it incredibly difficult to develop the socio-economic foundations needed to create the assets essential for conquering poverty. Arguably, it has hindered the country’s transition from a poverty-stricken, Third World status towards sustainable growth.
Nobel-winning economists since the 1950s have pointed out this critical truth, that providing valid land titles for the economically active majority is the first indispensable step towards sustainable development. The absence of such titles is why “stomach infrastructure” has been weaponised as the primary tool of political engagement and, indeed, electoral success. Unfortunately, in all our research and studies, we are not aware of any country that has escaped the poverty trap by relying on the mechanisms of “stomach infrastructure.”
As economists have argued, we must awaken “Dead Capital.” Assets lacking a legal, tradable conversion into the commercial process are next to useless and act as a debilitation to economic progress. Nigeria today, unfortunately, is a living reenactment of the perspectives held by thinkers like the great economist Andre Gunder Frank.
Frank and his disciples are associated with concepts such as “Growth Without Development” and the “Development of Underdevelopment.” Tragically, after fifty years of budgets totaling tens of billions of dollars – spanning various oil booms and busts – Nigeria effectively replicates these propositions of all-motion-without-movement.
It is a devastating indictment that thinkers like Gunder Frank published their works in the 1960s and were well-established in theory and practice by the early 1970s. Nations that sensibly navigated these forewarnings – such as Singapore, Malaysia, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Korea – have made remarkable progress and, in many cases, broken out of the poverty trap. Conversely, countries that have refused to learn continue to contend with a barometer of regression.
Nigeria once possessed very positive policies that led to real development before military rule and the illusion of an “oil boom” took control and derailed a successful trajectory. The ill-advised Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) was, of course, the final nail in the coffin. A prime example of the road jettisoned is the work of the Lagos Executive Development Board (LEDB) – work that remains relevant today.
The LEDB stands as an outstanding testament to what Nigeria positively achieved, which should have been sustained and built upon. But we failed woefully! This failure is why we hear ridiculous propositions such as, “There can be no affordable housing without affordable building materials.” Such a claim is a direct reflection of the destructive mindset that arose out of SAP.
Nigeria today faces a dilemma between the empty plate and the polling booth. Unless and until the link between the two is broken irrevocably, the country cannot transit out of underdevelopment. In a society based on universal adult suffrage, this is a necessity. Nigeria must achieve, as a clear demonstration of its developmental goals, what was once known as the “38% Rule.”
Adjusted for the cost factors and purchasing power parity of today’s Nigeria, this rule posits that approximately 38% of the electorate must earn a monthly income – in either the formal or informal sectors – of slightly more than double the minimum wage.
In current conditions, that equates to roughly N170,000 per month after taxes, health insurance, and pension deductions. Achieving this would dismantle the notion of “stomach infrastructure”, signaling a society on its way to enduring development and reinforcing the structures necessary for a stable, uninterrupted democratic state. This must be the guiding philosophy of a Bola Tinubu second-term administration.
When this is done – as it should be, and the Jagaban of Borgu has the capacity to see it through – he will be seen in the decades ahead as the man who resuscitated Nigeria and acted as the propellant of a New Republic. It is a historical responsibility which the discerning have no doubt he has the capacity to achieve.
For the country to make appreciable progress, we must embrace a new politics centered on clear programs. We need a system that proves – through the daily lived experience of the masses – that voting for credible leaders with viable plans leads to a better life.
This would demonstrate that the politics of “stomach infrastructure” and immediate gain are ultimately hollow. To get out of the woods, programs must be crafted to address the specific needs of different demographics. If this is achieved, then despite the prevailing pessimism, hearts and minds can still be won. People want to believe in a better future; we just need to give them a reason to.
The final takeaway is that true economic dignity, not the temporary relief of a handout, is the only sustainable foundation for a stable society. Without it, political loyalty is a fragile contract that will eventually be torn up by the harsh reality of the streets. In my considered opinion, therefore, we cannot fix “street reality” with palliatives. We fix it by ensuring citizens have the means to fend for themselves.
May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!
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