Admin I Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2023
WASHINGTON – Further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may entail the oil price growth to as much as $175 a barrel, the World Bank said in its October 2023 Commodity Markets Outlook.
“The conflict’s effects on global commodity markets have been limited so far. Overall oil prices have risen about 6% since the start of the conflict. Prices of agricultural commodities, most metals, and other commodities have barely budged,” the World Bank said.
“The outlook for commodity prices would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate,” experts said. The oil price will grow initially in the “small disruption” scenario between 3% and 13% relative to the average for the current quarter—-to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel,” the World Bank noted.
Oil prices will move up by 21% to 35% to between $109 and $121 a barrel in the “medium disruption” scenario and by 56% to 75% initially to between $140 and $157 a barrel in the “large disruption” scenario, experts said.
If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades,” not merely from the conflict in Ukraine but also from the Middle East, said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
