Emmanuel Ukudolo I Saturday, August 30, 2025
LAGOS, Nigeria – Europe’s three major economies and power E3 (France, Germany, and the UK) have sent a thirty day notice to the United Nations to trigger snapback if Iran does not return to the negotiation table. The E3 will automatically impose sanctions if Iran does not embrace diplomacy and only continue with non-nuclear uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes under close supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA.
Iran has described this decision by the E3 as unreasonable since it was in diplomacy and cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, when Israel and the United States attacked its three nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Itsfahan.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a statement condemning the move, warning that the decision by France, Germany, and Britain will severely undermine the ongoing cooperation between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The European signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) seeking to exploit the Snapback Mechanism will not affect Iran’s determination to safeguard its independence and progress but will further complicate the diplomatic landscape – Advisor IRGC-QF
Foreign Affairs Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi believes that Iran has acted responsibly and in good faith, adding that Tehran will defend its national rights and interests by responding appropriately to the European Troika’s “unlawful and unjustified” decision to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions.
In addition, Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former Vice President for strategic affairs and foreign minister, says that what the European signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are trying to do is “unfounded” because Iran was fully observing the deal, even one year after the United States withdrew from it.
For Mohammad Mokhber, advisor and assistant to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, the European signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) seeking to exploit the Snapback Mechanism will not affect Iran’s determination to safeguard its independence and progress but will further complicate the diplomatic landscape.
With the 30-day deadline drawing closer, what options is Iran left with putting into consideration impact of sanctions on the economy?
Iran has several options and potential responses, ranging from diplomatic engagement to further escalation.
Diplomatic Options
Resume “fair and balanced” negotiations: Iran’s foreign minister has stated that the country is ready to resume negotiations with the E3, provided that the European nations demonstrate seriousness and goodwill. The E3 has also said they will use the 30-day period to continue diplomatic efforts.
Support the Russian-Chinese resolution: Iran is working with Russia and China to get a draft resolution approved by the UN Security Council that would extend the deadline and prevent the snapback of sanctions.
Negotiate a deal for temporary relief: The E3 has offered a six-month extension of the snapback deadline in exchange for specific actions from Iran, including restoring full cooperation and transparency with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and resuming talks.
Escalatory Actions
Withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): This is one of the most dramatic steps Iran could take. Iranian parliamentarians have already introduced a bill to accelerate withdrawal from the treaty, which would end the IAEA’s legal authority to oversee its nuclear facilities.
Further increase uranium enrichment: Iran has already exceeded the limits on enriched uranium set by the JCPOA and could choose to further ramp up its enrichment activities, potentially to a purity level close to weapons-grade.
Restrict IAEA access: Iran has previously limited the IAEA’s access to its nuclear facilities. As a response to snapback, it could further restrict or terminate the agency’s inspections and oversight.
Take other retaliatory measures: Hard-line elements within Iran have suggested other countermeasures, such as suspending talks with the IAEA or even threatening shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Other Considerations
Political divisions within Iran: There appears to be a debate within the Iranian leadership on how to respond. While some officials advocate for continued diplomacy, others, particularly hard-liners in the parliament, favor a more confrontational approach.
Economic resilience: Iranian officials claim the country has developed methods to circumvent sanctions based on past experience and is prepared to adapt to renewed restrictions on its oil exports and economy.
Rejection of E3’s right to trigger snapback: Iran maintains that the E3 has no legal or moral right to trigger the mechanism, arguing that they have failed to uphold their own commitments under the deal.
