Admin I Thursday, October 02, 2025
LAGOS, Nigeria – The Nigerian private sector ended the third quarter firmly in growth territory, marking the tenth consecutive month of improving business conditions, according to the latest Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI).
The headline index, which tracks the health of the non-oil private sector, registered at 53.4 in September, down from 54.2 in August, yet still indicating a solid strengthening of business conditions.
Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement on the previous month. The sustained growth was underpinned by marked improvements in output and new orders.
Firms reported expanding their business activity sharply, with increases seen across all four broad sectors covered by the report.
The rise in new business, driven by enhanced customer demand and new product launches, encouraged companies to increase capacity.
Crucially, September saw a significant alleviation of cost pressures.
The rate of increase in firms’ purchase costs was the slowest recorded in five-and-a-half years, contributing to the general cooling of inflationary trends.
Overall input prices rose at their softest pace in two-and-a-half years, though overall input costs continued to climb markedly, prompting companies to raise their own selling prices.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, noted the positive close to the quarter, stating, “Nigeria’s business conditions ended the quarter on a strong note, although the pace of strengthening moderated relative to August. Notably, the rate of expansion in output remained strong despite easing slightly when compared to August, linked to improving customer demand and better availability of materials.
The improved conditions translated to stronger labour market performance.
The pace of job creation quickened to its fastest in almost two years, a modest but notable increase in staffing levels not seen since October 2023.
Firms also sharply increased their input buying, leading to a build-up of inventories to cater for current and future demand.
The analyst noted that the positive PMI data, alongside crude oil production figures, suggests overall economic growth could reach 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.
This momentum has led Stanbic IBTC to raise its full-year growth forecast for 2025 to 4.0%, up from 3.5% previously, accounting for the impact of GDP rebasing and stronger-than-expected growth in Q2.
The forecast is predicated on the expectation that non-oil sector growth will remain strong into 2026, supported by a likely reduction in interest rates and persistently low inflation.
Firms remain optimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for business activity, although sentiment eased slightly to a four-month low.
