New study unravels total number of immigrant workers needed to support German economy until 2040

Admin l Tuesday, November 25, 2024

BERLIN – The German labour market is expected to rely heavily on immigrants in the long term, with around 288,000 international workers needed annually until 2040, according to a new study released on Tuesday.

The analysis, conducted on behalf of the Bertelsmann Foundation, shows that the current level of labour migration is significantly below what is required.

Susanne Schultz, migration expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation, told dpa that barriers must be removed and conditions for migrants improved to meet the growing demand.

A second projection model, based on a slightly less favourable scenario, suggests that Germany will need 368,000 foreign workers annually until 2040.

According to this projection, from 2041 to 2060, demand is expected to slightly decrease to around 270,000 workers annually, thanks to positive effects from previous immigration.

According to the study, without additional immigration, Germany’s workforce is projected to shrink from 46.4 million to 41.9 million by 2040 – a decline of about 10% due to demographic changes.

The impact of this decline would vary regionally. The study indicates that North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, would see a 10% reduction in its workforce, which is considered a moderate impact.
In contrast, states like Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Saarland would be hit harder.

Even in economically strong regions like Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and Hesse, a significant workforce shortage is expected without the inflow of international workers.