Edo 2024 Governorship Election: A postmortem

…Issues, Factors, Expectations, Trends that Gave Okpebholo Victory

…Why Ighodalo Should Save PDP from Further Mockery at Tribunal

 

By Sebastine Ebhuomhan I Saturday, Sept.28, 2024

 

ABUJA, Nigeria – The 2024 Governorship election of Edo State has come and gone. As the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) scheduled, it held last Saturday, the 21st of September.

Contrary to the wish of dictators, brutes, thugs and saboteurs, the election held in an atmosphere of peace, fairness, justice, credibility and integrity even under non-stop downpours and drizzles that swept through the entire state. Before nestling on this post-election analysis, your indulgence is most craved, dear readers and citizens, to adopt for the very first time in this journalist’s series of essays on the election since June 2023, the first-person personal pronoun so as to properly nurture the growing relationship between you and I.

I congratulate Edo State Governor-elect, Distinguished Senator Monday Okpebholo as well as the Deputy Governor-elect, Right Honourable Dennis Idahosa of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the victory and Certificates of Return INEC presented to them on Thursday in Abuja. Mr. Okpebholo, the lawmaker of Edo Central District in the Senate and Chairman of Senate Procurement Committee, deserved his victory. He worked hard for it. Backed by a united local, state and national leadership of his party, enthusiastic members, undaunted believers, and indomitable supporters, he toiled tirelessly and sleeplessly, campaigned through the nooks and crannies of Edo villages, towns and cities, and engaged directly and organically with voters. As he was campaigning, some of his opponents were tactically evading face-to-face engagement. Along with their aides, experts, and hatchet writers, they lodged in posh Edo, Lagos, Abuja, American and European hotels to watch Okpebholo’s campaign speeches for mistakes and Freudian slips. The result reflects the popular wish of Edo people.

Declaring the results, INEC Returning Officer and Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Professor Faruk Adamu Kuta, said, “That Okpebholo Monday of the APC, having satisfied the requirements of the law and got the highest votes as the winner, is hereby returned elected.” Okpebholo scored a total of 291, 667 votes (about 51.1 percent) to defeat the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Dr. Akintunde Asuerinme Ighodalo, who scored 247, 655 votes (about 43.3 percent) while the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Barrister Olumide Osaigbovo Akpata, scored 22, 763 votes (about 4.0 percent) for a distant third position. The total vote cast amounts to 22 percent of the 2, 629, 025 registered voters. Obviously, a poor voter turnout created by many factors including apathy, bad weather, flooding and erosion, threats of violence, and unmotorable roads all over Edo State.

In a tribute to Edo people, Okpebholo gushed, “Never in my life have I seen a people express their desires and wishes so passionately. Edo people’s courage stood tall and democracy blew its trumpet. The people of Edo State marched to a victory they achieved through the ballot. Edo people resisted the temptation of being bought financially by putting an end to old and ancient system of money and power that often thwart the sovereign will of the people. Edo people proved that our collective voice remains the voice of the New Edo that has risen.”

Edo State has three Districts, 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs), 192 wards and over 4, 500 polling units. A breakdown of the results showed that the APC won eleven LGAs across the districts to the PDP’s seven. The APC won: Esan West, Owan West, Egor, Akoko Edo, Esan Central, Orhionmwon, Owan East, Etsako East, Etsako Central, Etsako West, and Oredo LGAs. The PDP won: Esan North East, Igueben, Uhunmwode, Esan South East, Ovia North-East, Ovia South-West, and Ikpoba Okha LGAs. The LP won no unit, ward or LGA to confirm the expectation of political pundits.

Apart from Oredo, which he won with 30, 780 votes, Okpebholo recorded his highest votes in Edo North, specifically, Akoko Edo: 34, 847 votes and Etsako West: 32, 107 votes. On the other hand, Ighodalo got his highest votes from Ikpoba-Okha: 26, 382 votes and Oredo: 24, 938 votes, both in Edo South. Oredo and Ikpoba-Okha (where Ighodalo’s running mate, Barrister Osarodion Ogie hails from) are historic traditional strongholds of the PDP. As widely predicted, despite being unable to win his unit, ward, and LGA, the LP’s Akpata recorded his highest votes in Oredo: 5, 381 votes and Ikpoba-Okha: 4, 026 votes, which achieved a knock-off effect on the PDP’s anticipated votes no thanks to the socio-cultural and legal war Governor Obaseki is pursuing by proxy against Omo N’Oba N’Edo, Uku Akpolokpolo, Ewuare II for the control of Benin Traditional Kingdom’s returned artefacts and museum. Former Representative of Oredo Federal Constituency, Honourable Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama, who stepped down for Obaseki to earn his PDP re-election ticket in 2020, and many other angry political leaders openly campaigned against Ighodalo because of Obaseki.

The PDP won the majority votes of two districts: Edo South, in spite of losing Oredo, the largest LGA, to APC and Edo Central. But the APC, as I had long analysed and predicted, swept to victory with massive votes from Edo North. The PDP got 54, 813 votes to the APC’s 48, 895 votes in Edo Central with both Okpebholo and Ighodalo winning their respective units, wards and LGAs convincingly. A further breakdown of the election performance showed that the three LGAs the PDP won: Esan North East, Esan South East and Igueben constitutes the Agbazilo political sub-division of Esan Land, where Ighodalo’s family historically hail from. On the other hand, Okpebholo won Esan Central and Esan West, which constitute the Okpebholo sub-division. This result aligned to the election’s predicted trend. The PDP edged Edo South with 115, 502 votes to the APC’s 112, 088 votes despite the party leader, Governor Godwin Obaseki, losing his LGA to fulfill his predicted political death. But the Tsunami in Edo North swept the PDP out of the Government House on Dennis Osadebey Avenue. The APC unsurprisingly recorded a massive 130, 684 votes to the PDP’s 76, 959 votes under the influence of many of the district’s political leaders.

Although the PDP’s Chief Agent and Chief of Staff to the Governor, Dr. Osaigbovo Iyoha, would intermittently cast doubt on the APC vote haul at the collation centre even before the party campaign council’s Deputy Director-General Mr. Emmanuel Odigie began crying in the studio of AriseTV News, the signs were there all along for intelligent people to see. Perhaps, only Mr. Obaseki and his cabal failed to see the looming disaster. Many of the PDP leaders Obaseki dealt treacherous blows are from Edo North. They include: the impeached and restored Deputy Governor, Right Honourable Philip Shaibu; the suspended PDP National Vice Chairman (South-South), Chief Dan Orbih; and a former Speaker of Edo State House of Assembly, who Obaseki overlooked as Mr. Shaibu’s replacement, Right Honourable Kabiru Adjoto among others. In comparison, Obaseki’s imposed deputy governor, Omobayo Marvellous Godwins, lost his local government, Akoko Edo, woefully to Adjoto.

The APC vote haul in Edo North underlined five lessons. One: that Governor Obaseki’s hasty and illegal impeachment of Shaibu from Office of the Deputy Governor was an unpopular decision. Two: that the imposition of Mr. Godwins from the LP as Shaibu’s replacement was unintelligent and tactless. Three: that the incumbent Speaker of Edo Assembly, Right Honourable Blessing Agbebaku, has no political influence in the two Owan LGAs, where he holds sway. Four: that Edo North people are unconvinced about Obaseki’s MOUs or his agrarian lip service. Five: that Mr. Governor’s disrespectful obstinacy resulted in PDP loss.

“We are not ashamed of what we have done, because, when you have a great cause to fight for, the moment of greatest humiliation is the moment when the spirit is proudest,” Christabel Pankhurst, the strong voice of The Suffragettes, a British Women’s Social and Political Union founded by Emmeline Pankhurst to campaign for female voting in parliamentary elections, insisted in a speech at Albert Hall in London on 19th March, 1908, when questioned about the adoption of lawbreaking as a strategy of the union’s advocacy. Apart from repeatedly and consistently predicting PDP’s loss in my well-researched, factual, detailed, regularly published but often criticised investigative analyses following from the parties’ primary elections, I physically flew from Abuja to Benin City on my expenses (just as I did to register and monitor INEC’s CVR for two weeks in May/June) to vote for Okpebholo at Garrick Memorial Secondary School in Oredo, Benin City. Thereafter, I worked hard to deliver my voting unit, ward, local government area and entire state to APC’s Okpebholo, monitoring from one centre to another, even though I am not a registered party member. Just like Christabel maintained above, I am not ashamed to have contributed to PDP’s loss on Saturday, which was the desire of my heart.

For making the Monday Okpebholo Governorship Project a success therefore, I will like to specially thank the Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic and APC National Leader, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for providing a violence-free, level-playing ground for all the candidates of the election. Asiwaju Tinubu has demonstrated, once again, that he is a trusted democrat. I urge Nigerians to show patience for his reforms to bear dividends. My gratitude goes to the Vice President, Distinguished Senator Kashim Shetima. And to all APC leaders who took the gauntlets: the Distinguished Senate President, Chief Godswill Akpabio; the Speaker of House of Representatives, Right Honourable Tajudeen Abass; the Progressive Governors Forum under the leadership of Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State; the APC National Chairman, Alhaji Abdullahi Umar Ganduje; the APC National Secretary, Barrister Suraju Ajibola Bashiru; the loving father and tireless leader of Edo APC, Senator Adams Oshiomhole; the indomitable Edo APC Chairman, Emperor Jarette Tenebe; the Director-General of the APC Campaign Council, Senator Matthew Urhoghide; the Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Alhaji Abubakar Momoh; the Nigeria Governors Forum under the chairmanship of Kwara State Governor, Alhaji AbdulRahman AbdulRazak; all the other very important personalities and leaders of Edo State APC brevity and space would not allow to be mentioned individually. Also, the PDP backbone that came to energise APC campaign and turn the election into a foregone conclusion: Deputy Governor Philip Shaibu, Chief Dan Osi Orbih, Right Honourable Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama, Right Honourable Kabiru Adjoto, Right Honourable Omosede Gabriella Igbinedion, Barrister Anselm Ojezua, Honourable Joefel and others too numerous to mention here. I particularly commend the INEC, the Nigeria Police Force, the Department of State Security, the National Security Adviser, the Chief of Defence Staff, the Nigeria Army, the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps, the Federal Road Safety Corps, and all other security/para-military agencies. To the revered fatherly Oba of Benin and Chairman of Edo State Council of Traditional Rulers, His Royal Majesty, Oba Ewuare II and the other traditional rulers, I thank you all for your patience, forbearance, forgiveness, wisdom, guidance and prayers. Oba ghator kpere, Ise! To every professional, non-professional, students, and the media, I thank you profusely for supporting Okpebholo to victory. To Okpebholo’s fellow contestants, thanks for accepting the results: you all stand to win in the future. To every other citizen, resident and stakeholder of the Greater Edo Project, who contributed by obeying the law even if not by voting in the election that arguably ranks as the freest, fairest, most peaceful and most credible in Edo State, your place in history is indelible. After uniting to elect Okpebholo as Edo State Governor, I urge you all to, please, support him to succeed in the next four years in office.

Dear Governor-elect Okpebholo, “There is a homely adage which runs thus: ‘Speak softly and carry a big stick, you will go far’.” Former American Republican President, Theodore Roosevelt, highlighted this in a rousing speech at the Minnesota State Fair on 2nd September, 1901. You were popularly elected and serving as a lawmaker for Esan Land at the Senate. Since last Saturday, you became the Governor-elect of Edo State. I began to work for your success since June 2023 even without knowing you once I became convinced about your background, ability and capability to lead and deliver on your words. You silently worked hard and left your opponents to do the noise. I therefore urge you to forgive all those who ceaselessly mocked, ridiculed, abused, cursed, and attacked you in our long, tortuous road to success. I passionately urge you, also, to form a broad-based government for the unity of Edo State, which we all presently agree, Obaseki has pushed into disunity. According to the United States of America statesman, John Fitzgerald Kennedy in a 1963 attributed statement, “Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan.” In the bid for a broad-based government, however, it is important to avoid a repetition of recent APC mistakes in Edo State especially of snubbing qualified believers and workers for strangers. No incidence highlights this grave error more than Comrade Oshiomhole’s inspired remark last weekend. “Make no mistake. There shall be no infiltration. Those who worked for artificial intelligence should stay there and allow those who worked for the native and organic intelligence to stay here. The days are gone when you play double games. You can’t eat here anymore,” Oshiomhole stated at the shocking sight of a smiling ex-Commissioner and Obaseki/Ighodalo campaigner, Larry Aghedo, during the victory celebration for Okpebholo, who Aghedo allegedly ridiculed in derogatory terms during the campaigns.

In spite of the clear integrity in the Edo election, there has been a concerted criminal effort by a few observers and civil society organisations to discredit the successful election without any fact or evidence. Leading the sinister plot to discredit INEC so as to hijack its power and authority is Yiaga Africa ahead of a handful of similarly desperate NGOs under the tow of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) all working in cahoot with the defeated PDP and LP. Let me clarify, first and foremost, that while Yiaga has been attacking Edo election’s integrity and credibility, CDD has been agitating for a review of IReV uploads of the poll result. However, they appear to be too impatient to satisfy their pay masters. In a report on Monday that grossly failed to meet the scientific concepts of monitoring, analysis and investigation, Yiaga alleged that the Edo governorship election fails its integrity test and standards. Titled, Post Election Statement on the September 21, 2024 and signed by the Chair of its Election Mission, Dr. Aisha Abdullahi and Executive Director, Samson Itodo, the report that is a poor guess work at best and an unreliable data worthy of public trust at worst, clearly seeks to set Edo State in confusion and, ultimately in violence, to achieve the targets of Obaseki’s do-or-die politics.

The controversial report stated, “Based on reports received from the sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa can project the expected vote shares for each party within a narrow margin. However, Yiaga Africa is only able to verify the election outcome if it falls within its estimated margins. If the official results do not fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges, then the results may have been manipulated.” It continued, “For instance, the official results announced by INEC for APC in Oredo and Egor LGAs fall outside the PRVT estimate. In Esan West LGA, the official results for the PDP fall outside the PRVT estimates. Also, in Oredo LGA, the official results as announced for LP fall outside the PRVT estimates. These inconsistencies with Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate that the results were altered at the level of collation.”

The report concluded, “The disparities between the official results released by INEC and the Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate manipulation of results during the collation process.” If this report is not an attempt to criminally hijack the responsibilities of INEC in the interests of Yiaga’s favoured political parties, what else? To begin, is Yiaga claiming that if its PRVT estimates or standards truly fulfills known scientific yardsticks, it has margin of errors? What is the margin of errors in their deployment in Edo State? It is becoming clearer that the anticipation of subjective reports like this in support of the PDP propelled Obaseki into a damnation of commonsensical approach to issues.

Perhaps, unsurprisingly, or coincidentally, as Ms. Abdullahi and Mr. Itodo were hastily preparing Yiaga’s report, Governor Obaseki sneaked into INEC state collation centre under the guise of asking the REC questions his party leaders would have done better. Obaseki’s illegal visit followed a similar illegal visit by the PDP candidate earlier. Even when the REC, Onuoha Anugbum, refused to support the amended Electoral Act 2022 breaches, Obaseki comfortably sat to wait for Godot until the Deputy Inspector-General of Police, Frank Mba, walked him out. Is Itodo aware of the rumour that emanated from the Government House when Obaseki was waiting inside INEC collation centre that he had USD$5 million cash in his car?

About the same time, the PDP Governorship Campaign Council Chairman and Adamawa State Governor, Alhaji Amadu Fintiri, a man who has benefited from INEC’s legality and protection, was leading his fellow governors to announce fake results even when INEC was yet to announce the election results. The party’s Governors’ Forum would later endorse the act that clearly contravenes Sections 178 and 179 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Also, Edo PDP Chairman, Anthony Aziegbemi, who is fighting a N10 billion law suit from the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu for defamation and libel published through Obaseki’s media spokesman, Crusoe Osagie, further stoked the ember with unfounded allegations at a press conference. In recent television interviews, Mr. Ighodalo claimed that he was in receipt of over 150 polling units of alleged over voting. Since no election anywhere in the world is 100 percent okay, it is hoped the polling units include the ones the PDP won. His party is also contesting INEC’s power to move collation from LGA to state centre. Even under proven threats of violence, disruption, hijacking, and snatching of ballots by party thugs? The INEC merely acted proactively. The report particularly highlighted all political parties for vote buying. Not even the LP, whose candidate, Akpata, described the election as “a transaction” was spared. As for the alleged intimidation of INEC officials, INEC is capable of dealing with any formal report on that. On the issue of IReV uploads, the most reliable evidence of an election result are the results sheets signed by agents. Signed result sheets produced Edo election result. Therefore, the reliability of Yiaga’s unscientific guess work remains doubtful. It is clear that one of the pillars of the case Ighodalo and PDP are taking to the tribunal is Yiaga Africa and CDD’s repot. Ighodalo must reconsider his decision so as to save himself and the PDP from further ridicule at the tribunal.

The APC has rightly dampened Yiaga Africa’s report as a politicized work. “Alleging that results were manipulated without hard facts and figures but based on some statistical guess work is a clear disservice to the electoral process. Yiaga Africa’s report is a travesty, replete with methodological flaws, politicized observations, inconsistencies, inaccuracies, and called its credibility into question,” a statement signed by the APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, fired back.

It is instructive that the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), the Centre for Credible Leadership and Citizens Awareness (CCLCA), a coalition of 51 accredited NGOs, many other CSOs, a faction of Dr. Peter Obi’s LP (which Obedient Movement supported different parties) as well as the Government of the United States of America have commended the organisation, credibility and integrity of Edo election. In a related review, Chairman of INEC-accredited Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), Niyi Akinsiju, said the unfounded claims of desperate civil society groups inequitably amplify the position of the PDP. “We totally reject their claim. We are, especially, at odd with the undisguised partisanship expressed in the publicly circulated statement by the coalition of civil society groups to denigrate the electoral process which, indeed is an amplification of the unfounded allegations of electoral process compromise made by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP),” Mr. Akinsiju stated.

According to the US Ambassador to Nigeria, Richard Mills Jr. in a statement on Tuesday, “The US Mission in Nigeria commends the people of Edo State for the widely peaceful conduct of gubernatorial elections on September 21 and reiterate calls for calm following the announcement of results.” Mr. Mills urged “all stakeholders, including INEC, to support established electoral processes and respect legal procedures to challenge the results.”

The Edo governorship election presented uncountable lessons. Some of the lessons are: that power ultimately resides in the hands of the people, not dictators; that gratitude, patience, respect, peace, unity, love, care, empathy, support, forgiveness, contentment and honesty are vital virtues of life; and that popular democratic support thrives on good governance and delivery of essential amenities to greatest number of people.

Even though it was illegal, it is humbling to see a lonely Governor Obaseki at the INEC headquarters purportedly crying for justice. The same governor who refused to reward or recognised those who worked for his victory in 2016? The same governor noted for executing state projects with foreign contractors and expatriates? The same governor who applies variation, splitting and inflation to execute contracts? The same governor who seized lands from ancestral owners without proper compensation? The same governor who is directly and indirectly fighting traditional rulers and everybody? The same governor who refused to swear in or pay 14 elected state lawmakers for four years now? The same governor who refused to swear in NJC-approved judges for over a year now? The same governor who impeached his deputy over political differences this year? The same governor who suspended the founders of the party that rescued him in 2020? The same governor who repeatedly hoarded palliatives in Edo State? The same governor noted for and defined by uncountable failed MOUs and promises?

But the unanswered question, however, is: where are the people who enabled, empowered and energised the governor in his self-destructive overdrive?

 

NB: Sebastine EBHUOMHAN is an award-winning journalist and a media consultant from Edo State, writing from Abuja. He can be reached on: [email protected] or 08037204620.